Purpose: One single factor cannot by itself predict curve progression accurately. The aim of this study is to determine multiple related factors in predicting the progression of scoliosis in girls with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) treated with bracing.
Methods: Eighty-nine female patients with AIS treated with a brace were reviewed. A series of parameters were consecutively measured and documented during the period of follow-up. Curve behavior between the first visit and final follow-up was analyzed. Several different parameters which may contribute to progression of curve were selected by a logistic regression analysis.
Results: Mean age of patients at the first visit was 13.6 (10-16) years. The patients were followed for 12-72 months (mean 24.8 months). At the last visit, 21 patients (23.60 %) had curve progression more than 5°. After performing a logistic regression analysis, Risser sign less than two, the magnitude of the major curve at pre-brace greater than 35°, apical vertebral rotation beyond grade III, and the spinal length increasing larger than 20 mm in 1 year were found to be factors which predict the progression of more than 5°.
Conclusions: This study suggests that Risser sign, the magnitude of the major curve at pre-brace, apical vertebral rotation, and the spinal length increasing velocity are important factors to predict progression in the girls with AIS. Risser sign cannot predict the progression of scoliosis accurately unless combined with other related parameters.