Epidemics of late blight, caused by Phytophthora infestans (Mont.) de Bary, have been studied by plant pathologists and regarded with great concern by potato and tomato growers since the Irish potato famine in the 1840s. P. infestans populations have continued to evolve, with unique clonal lineages arising which differ in pathogen fitness and pathogenicity, potentially impacting epidemiology. In 2012 and 2013, the US-23 clonal lineage predominated late blight epidemics in most U.S. potato and tomato production regions, including Wisconsin. This lineage was unknown prior to 2009. For isolates of three recently identified clonal lineages of P. infestans (US-22, US-23, and US-24), sporulation rates were experimentally determined on potato and tomato foliage and the effect of temperature on lesion growth rate on tomato was investigated. The US-22 and US-23 isolates had greater lesion growth rates on tomato than US-24 isolates. Sporulation rates for all isolates were greater on potato than tomato, and the US-23 isolates had greater sporulation rates on both tomato and potato than the US-22 and US-24 isolates. Experimentally determined correlates of fitness were input to the LATEBLIGHT model and epidemics were simulated using archived Wisconsin weather data from four growing seasons (2009 to 2012) to investigate the effect of isolates of these new lineages on late blight epidemiology. The fast lesion growth rates of US-22 and US-23 isolates resulted in severe epidemics in all years tested, particularly in 2011. The greater sporulation rates of P. infestans on potato resulted in simulated epidemics that progressed faster than epidemics simulated for tomato; the high sporulation rates of US-23 isolates resulted in simulated epidemics more severe than simulated epidemics of isolates of the US-22 and US-24 isolates and EC-1 clonal lineages on potato and tomato. Additionally, US-23 isolates consistently caused severe simulated epidemics when lesion growth rate and sporulation were input into the model singly or together. Sporangial size of the US-23 isolates was significantly smaller than that of US-22 and US-24 isolates, which may result in more efficient release of sporangia from the tomato or potato canopy. Our experimentally determined correlates of fitness and the simulated epidemics resulting from their incorporation into the LATEBLIGHT model suggest that US-23 isolates of P. infestans may have the greatest fitness among currently prevalent lineages and may be the most likely lineage to persist in the P. infestans population. The US-23 clonal lineage has been documented as the most prevalent lineage in recent years, indicating its overall fitness. In our work, US-23 had the highest epidemic potential among current genotypes. Given that epidemic potential is a component of fitness, this may, in part, explain the current predominance of the US-23 lineage.
Keywords: LATEBLIGHT simulation model.