Population ageing presents significant challenges for many developed nations. Accurately forecasting the likely future burden of age-related medical conditions, such as hip fracture, is critical. In this study, we present estimates of the current and future burden of hip fracture in NSW, Australia, providing crucial information for future health care planning.
Purpose: The aims of this study were to investigate the burden of hip fracture in Australia's largest state, New South Wales (NSW), and to build a prediction model to forecast the likely future burden of hip fracture from 2016 to 2036 in persons aged 50 years or more.
Methods: A retrospective population-based cohort study was conducted using NSW hospitalisation data. Standardised incident hip fracture rates and hip fracture-related acute care length of stay and costs were estimated. Predictive negative binomial regression modelling using age, gender and local health district and year covariates together with projected NSW populations was applied to forecast future hip fractures.
Results: Total incident hip fractures increased 8.8 % over a 12-year period from 2000/2001 to 2011/2012 despite declining age-standardised rates. Estimates of acute care length of stay for the treatment of hip fracture ranged from 10 to 15 days and acute care costs ranged between 21 and 29,000 Australian dollars per fracture. By 2036, incident hip fractures are projected to rise by 35.2 %, assuming a continued decline in the rate of hip fracture or by 107.5 % if the current decline in the rate does not continue. Acute care length of stay and costs are each predicted to rise between 37.1 and 110.4 % by 2036.
Conclusion: An ageing population and changing demographics will continue to drive the increasing burden of incident hip fractures in NSW and Australia in the foreseeable future. These anticipated changes provide important information for the planning and management of future hip fracture care.