An estimate of the incidence of influenza-like illness during the influenza pandemic of 2009

Abstract

Introduction: The influenza pandemic of 2009 had a great social impact. Many health resources were devoted to the care, prevention and surveillance of this disease. Epidemiological surveillance is based on the reporting of cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) and confirmed influenza cases. The objective was to estimate the true incidence of ILI during the influenza pandemic of 2009.

Methods: The capture-recapture method was applied during the month of highest influenza incidence in Castellón. Two notification systems were used: (i)electronic reporting of Notifiable Diseases (ND), and (ii)laboratory-based (LAB) data collection. Estimates were made by stratifying by age group and week. Independence coefficients were calculated for those strata.

Results: No dependence was found between stratification variables and the reporting system. A total of 7,181 ND cases and 524 LAB cases were identified, of which 211 were recorded in both systems. The estimated total of cases was 17,785 in a single month. In the study period, almost 4% of people in the area suffered flu symptoms (cumulative incidence), with 1% being affected each day (daily prevalence). The sensitivity of the ND system was 40%, i.e., the percentage of patients seeking primary care.

Conclusions: To obtain an estimate of the actual incidence of influenza-like illness in the population during a pandemic period, the number of medical consultations should be multiplied by a factor of 2.5. This factor is lower than that estimated for periods without pandemic alert.

Keywords: Captura-recaptura; Capture-recapture; Estimación; Estimation; Gripe; Incidence; Incidencia; Influenza; Influenza pandemic; Influenza-like syndrome; Pandemia de gripe; Síndrome gripal.