Investigation of climate change impact on water resources for an Alpine basin in northern Italy: implications for evapotranspiration modeling complexity

PLoS One. 2014 Oct 6;9(10):e109053. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0109053. eCollection 2014.

Abstract

Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required because of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Climate Change*
  • Computer Simulation
  • Ecosystem*
  • Geography
  • Hydrology
  • Italy
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Plant Transpiration / physiology*
  • Rain
  • Temperature
  • Water Movements
  • Water Resources*

Grants and funding

This work was supported by ACQWA EU/FP7 project (grant number 212250) “Assessing Climate impacts on the Quantity and quality of WAter” [link:http://www.acqwa.ch]. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.