Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

PLoS One. 2014 Sep 29;9(9):e108797. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0108797. eCollection 2014.

Abstract

New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly versus daily) for estimating survival.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aging / physiology*
  • Animals
  • Animals, Newborn
  • Choice Behavior*
  • Deer / growth & development*
  • Female
  • Geography
  • Models, Biological*
  • Survival Analysis
  • United States

Associated data

  • Dryad/10.5061/dryad.515SG

Grants and funding

Funding for this study was provided by Federal Aid to Wildlife Restoration (Project W-75-R-145, nos. 7530, 75103, and 7510) administered by South Dakota Department of Game, Fish, and Parks, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game through the Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, and the California Department of Fish and Game Deer Herd Management Plan Implementation Program. Funding also was provided by South Dakota State University, Idaho State University, the U.S. Forest Service, the National Science Foundation, Bend of the River Chapter of Minnesota Deer Hunters Association, Bluffland Whitetails Association, Cottonwood County Game and Fish League, Des Moines Valley Chapter of Minnesota Deer Hunters Association, Minnesota Bowhunters, Inc., Minnesota Deer Hunters Association, Minnesota State Archery Association I, North Country Bowhunters Chapter of Safari Club International, Rum River Chapter of Minnesota Deer Hunters Association, South Metro Chapter of Minnesota Deer Hunters Association, and Whitetail Institute of North America. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.