Estimating the number of human cases of ceftiofur-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Heidelberg in Québec and Ontario, Canada

Abstract

A stochastic model was used to estimate the number of human cases of ceftiofur-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Heidelberg in Québec and Ontario attributable to chicken consumption and excess cases attributable to human prior antimicrobial consumption. The annual mean incidence of S. Heidelberg (Québec/Ontario) decreased from 70/62 cases per 100 000 in 2004 to 29/30 cases per 100 000 in 2007 (Québec)/2008 (Ontario), increasing to 59/45 cases per 100 000 in 2011. The annual mean incidence of ceftiofur-resistant cases from chicken decreased from 8/7 cases per 100 000 in 2004 to 1/1 cases per 100 000 in 2007 (Québec)/2008 (Ontario), increasing to 7/5 cases per 100 000 in 2011. The annual mean total number of excess ceftiofur-resistant cases from chicken attributable to human prior antimicrobial consumption (Québec/Ontario) decreased from 71/123 in 2004 to 6/24 in 2007 (Québec)/2008 (Ontario), but increased to 62/91 in 2011. This model will support future work to determine the increased severity, mortality and healthcare costs for ceftiofur-resistant Salmonella Heidelberg infections. These results provide a basis for the evaluation of future public health interventions to address antimicrobial resistance.

Keywords: Salmonella Heidelberg; antimicrobial resistance; ceftiofur; etiologic fraction; stochastic model.