Abstract
Changes in the net heat flux (NHF) into the ocean have profound impacts on global climate. We analyse a long-term plankton time-series and show that the NHF is a critical indicator of ecosystem dynamics. We show that phytoplankton abundance and diversity patterns are tightly bounded by the switches between negative and positive NHF over an annual cycle. Zooplankton increase before the transition to positive NHF in the spring but are constrained by the negative NHF switch in autumn. By contrast bacterial diversity is decoupled from either NHF switch, but is inversely correlated (r = -0.920) with the magnitude of the NHF. We show that the NHF is a robust mechanistic tool for predicting climate change indicators such as spring phytoplankton bloom timing and length of the growing season.
Publication types
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Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
MeSH terms
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Animals
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Bacteria / growth & development
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Biodiversity
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Climate Change
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Hot Temperature
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Oceans and Seas
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Phytoplankton / growth & development*
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Phytoplankton / microbiology
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Seasons
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Zooplankton / growth & development*
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Zooplankton / microbiology
Grants and funding
This work is supported by the Natural Environmental Research Council funded National Capability Western Channel Observatory. It also contributes to the projects Marinexus and Charm2 funded in part by the INTERREG IVA France (Channel) – England programme (FEDER), and to the EU FP7 projects Devotes (DEVelopment Of innovative Tools for understanding marine biodiversity and assessing good Environmental Status, Grant Agreement number 308392) and GreenSeas (Development of global plankton data base and model system for eco-climate early warning, Grant Agreement number 265294). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.