Strontium isotopes and the reconstruction of the Chaco regional system: evaluating uncertainty with Bayesian mixing models

PLoS One. 2014 May 22;9(5):e95580. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0095580. eCollection 2014.

Abstract

Strontium isotope sourcing has become a common and useful method for assigning sources to archaeological artifacts.In Chaco Canyon, an Ancestral Pueblo regional center in New Mexico, previous studiesusing these methods have suggested that significant portion of maize and wood originate in the Chuska Mountains region, 75 km to the West [corrected]. In the present manuscript, these results were tested using both frequentist methods (to determine if geochemical sources can truly be differentiated) and Bayesian methods (to address uncertainty in geochemical source attribution). It was found that Chaco Canyon and the Chuska Mountain region are not easily distinguishable based on radiogenic strontium isotope values. The strontium profiles of many geochemical sources in the region overlap, making it difficult to definitively identify any one particular geochemical source for the canyon's pre-historic maize. Bayesian mixing models support the argument that some spruce and fir wood originated in the San Mateo Mountains, but that this cannot explain all 87Sr/86Sr values in Chaco timber. Overall radiogenic strontium isotope data do not clearly identify a single major geochemical source for maize, ponderosa, and most spruce/fir timber. As such, the degree to which Chaco Canyon relied upon outside support for both food and construction material is still ambiguous.

Publication types

  • Historical Article
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Agriculture / history
  • Archaeology / history
  • Archaeology / methods*
  • Bayes Theorem
  • Computer Simulation
  • Environmental Monitoring*
  • History, Medieval
  • Models, Chemical
  • New Mexico
  • Strontium Isotopes / analysis*
  • Uncertainty
  • Wood / chemistry*
  • Zea mays / chemistry*

Substances

  • Strontium Isotopes

Grants and funding

The University of New Mexico Department of Anthropology provided support that assisted with the initial databasing of strontium isotope data. This material is based in part upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program under Grant No. DGE-0903444. The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.