Background: A substantial number of localized gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) patients have recurrences even after complete resection. The risk of recurrence after complete resection should be estimated when considering adjuvant therapy. In this study, we evaluated prognostic factors of GIST recurrence and compared several reported risk-stratification schemes for defining risk of recurrence to guide the use of adjuvant therapy using data from a large Japanese GIST population.
Methods: We analyzed clinicopathological data collected retrospectively and prospectively from 712 GISTs with complete resection from 1980-2010. We evaluated possible prognostic factors and compared the National Institutes of Health consensus criteria, the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology criteria, Joensuu's modified NIH classification (J-NIHC), the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system (AJCCS), and the Japanese modified NIH criteria for prediction of tumor recurrence in adjuvant settings.
Results: Univariate analysis suggested that the following factors were prognostic: tumor size, mitotic count, site, clinically malignant features of rupture and/or invasion, and gender. In multivariate analysis, size >5 cm, mitotic count >5/50 HPF, non-gastric location, and the presence of rupture and/or macroscopic invasion were independent adverse prognostic factors. When adjuvant therapy is considered for patients with high-risk GIST, the J-NIHC was the most sensitive classification system, while the AJCCS appeared to be the most accurate for predicting recurrence.
Conclusion: Tumor size, mitotic count, tumor site, and clinical features of rupture and/or invasion were important prognostic factors for GIST recurrence. Joensuu's classification appeared to best identify candidates for adjuvant therapy.