Despite years of research, the reprogramming of human somatic cells to pluripotency remains a slow, inefficient process, and a detailed mechanistic understanding of reprogramming remains elusive. Current models suggest reprogramming to pluripotency occurs in two-phases: a prolonged stochastic phase followed by a rapid deterministic phase. In this paradigm, the early stochastic phase is marked by the random and gradual expression of pluripotency genes and is thought to be a major rate-limiting step in the successful generation of induced Pluripotent Stem Cells (iPSCs). Recent evidence suggests that the epigenetic landscape of the somatic cell is gradually reset during a period known as the stochastic phase, but it is known neither how this occurs nor what rate-limiting steps control progress through the stochastic phase. A precise understanding of gene expression dynamics in the stochastic phase is required in order to answer these questions. Moreover, a precise model of this complex process will enable the measurement and mechanistic dissection of treatments that enhance the rate or efficiency of reprogramming to pluripotency. Here we use single-cell transcript profiling, FACS and mathematical modeling to show that the stochastic phase is an ordered probabilistic process with independent gene-specific dynamics. We also show that partially reprogrammed cells infected with OSKM follow two trajectories: a productive trajectory toward increasingly ESC-like expression profiles or an alternative trajectory leading away from both the fibroblast and ESC state. These two pathways are distinguished by the coordinated expression of a small group of chromatin modifiers in the productive trajectory, supporting the notion that chromatin remodeling is essential for successful reprogramming. These are the first results to show that the stochastic phase of reprogramming in human fibroblasts is an ordered, probabilistic process with gene-specific dynamics and to provide a precise mathematical framework describing the dynamics of pluripotency gene expression during reprogramming by OSKM.