A mixed modeling approach to predict the effect of environmental modification on species distributions

Francesco Cozzoli; Menno Eelkema; Tjeerd J Bouma; Tom Ysebaert; Vincent Escaravage; Peter M J Herman

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0089131

A mixed modeling approach to predict the effect of environmental modification on species distributions

PLoS One. 2014 Feb 26;9(2):e89131. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0089131. eCollection 2014.

Authors

Francesco Cozzoli¹, Menno Eelkema², Tjeerd J Bouma¹, Tom Ysebaert³, Vincent Escaravage⁴, Peter M J Herman¹

Affiliations

¹ Spatial Ecology Department, Netherlands Institute of Sea Research, Yerseke, The Netherlands.
² Hydraulic Engineering Department, Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), Delft, The Netherlands.
³ Spatial Ecology Department, Netherlands Institute of Sea Research, Yerseke, The Netherlands ; Institute for Marine Resources and Ecosystem Studies, Wageningen University, Yerseke, The Netherlands.
⁴ Monitor Taskforce, Netherlands Institute of Sea Research, Yerseke, The Netherlands.

Abstract

Human infrastructures can modify ecosystems, thereby affecting the occurrence and spatial distribution of organisms, as well as ecosystem functionality. Sustainable development requires the ability to predict responses of species to anthropogenic pressures. We investigated the large scale, long term effect of important human alterations of benthic habitats with an integrated approach combining engineering and ecological modelling. We focused our analysis on the Oosterschelde basin (The Netherlands), which was partially embanked by a storm surge barrier (Oosterscheldekering, 1986). We made use of 1) a prognostic (numerical) environmental (hydrodynamic) model and 2) a novel application of quantile regression to Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) to simulate both the realized and potential (habitat suitability) abundance of four macrozoobenthic species: Scoloplos armiger, Peringia ulvae, Cerastoderma edule and Lanice conchilega. The analysis shows that part of the fluctuations in macrozoobenthic biomass stocks during the last decades is related to the effect of the coastal defense infrastructures on the basin morphology and hydrodynamics. The methodological framework we propose is particularly suitable for the analysis of large abundance datasets combined with high-resolution environmental data. Our analysis provides useful information on future changes in ecosystem functionality induced by human activities.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Validation Study

MeSH terms

Ecosystem*
Humans
Models, Theoretical*

Grants and funding

This work was mainly funded by the Ecoshape/Building with Nature project. The NIOZ Monitor Taskforce was, for a large part, responsible for the fieldwork and the taxonomic analysis of the macrofauna samples. Rijkswaterstaat (executive body of the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment) was responsible for the funding of these activities in the framework of different national monitoring projects such as MWTL. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.