Global species richness estimates have not converged

M Julian Caley; Rebecca Fisher; Kerrie Mengersen

doi:10.1016/j.tree.2014.02.002

Global species richness estimates have not converged

Trends Ecol Evol. 2014 Apr;29(4):187-8. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2014.02.002. Epub 2014 Feb 23.

Authors

M Julian Caley¹, Rebecca Fisher², Kerrie Mengersen³

Affiliations

¹ Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3, Townsville MC, Queensland, Australia. Electronic address: j.caley@aims.gov.au.
² Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3, Townsville MC, Queensland, Australia.
³ School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, GPO Box 2434, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia.

PMID: 24569101
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2014.02.002

Abstract

We demonstrate that after more than six decades, estimates of global species richness have failed to converge, remain highly uncertain, and in many cases, are logically inconsistent. Convergence in these estimates could be accelerated by adaptive learning methods where the estimation of uncertainty is prioritised and used to guide future research.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis; adaptive learning; biodiversity; global species richness.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Review

MeSH terms

Bayes Theorem
Biodiversity*
Models, Biological
Uncertainty