Background: Few studies were conducted to examine the effects of weather conditions on the incidence of measles.
Methods: We used a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to analyze the relationship between meteorological factors and measles incidence in Guangzhou, China.
Results: Nonlinear effects of temperature and relative humidity on measles incidence were observed. The relative risk (RR) for the measles incidence associated with the 75th percentile of mean temperature (27.9 °C) relative to the median of mean temperature (24.7 °C) was 1.00 (0.86,1.16) for lags 0-10 days. The RR for the measles incidence associated with the 25th percentile of relative humidity (64%) relative to the median of relative humidity (73%) was 1.36 (1.01,1.82) for lags 0-30 days. The wet effects and dry effects were larger in females than in males. The wet effects were generally increased with ages. Significantly negative effects of cold spells on measles incidence were observed.
Conclusion: Both hot and cold temperatures result in decreases in the incidence of measles, and low relative humidity is a risk factor of measles morbidity. An increased number of measles cases might occur before and after a cold spell. Our findings highlight the need to pay more attention to the weather transformation and improve the immunity of susceptible population for measles elimination. Catch-up vaccination campaigns should be initiated among young adults.
Keywords: China; distributed lag non-linear model; effect; measles; weather condition.