Additive modelling reveals spatiotemporal PCBs trends in marine sediments

Gert Everaert; Frederik De Laender; Klaas Deneudt; Patrick Roose; Jan Mees; Peter L M Goethals; Colin R Janssen

doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2014.01.002

Additive modelling reveals spatiotemporal PCBs trends in marine sediments

Mar Pollut Bull. 2014 Feb 15;79(1-2):47-53. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2014.01.002. Epub 2014 Jan 18.

Authors

Gert Everaert¹, Frederik De Laender², Klaas Deneudt³, Patrick Roose⁴, Jan Mees³, Peter L M Goethals⁵, Colin R Janssen⁵

Affiliations

¹ Ghent University, Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, J. Plateaustraat 22, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium. Electronic address: Gert.Everaert@UGent.be.
² Université de Namur, Biology Department, Research Unit in Environmental and Evolutionary Biology, Rue de Bruxelles, 61, B5000 Namur, Belgium.
³ Flanders Marine Institute VLIZ, InnovOcean Site, Wandelaarkaai 7, B-8400 Ostend, Belgium.
⁴ Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences, Management Unit, 3de en 23ste Linieregimentsplein, B-8400 Ostend, Belgium.
⁵ Ghent University, Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, J. Plateaustraat 22, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium.

PMID: 24445127
DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2014.01.002

Abstract

We developed generalised additive mixed models (GAMMs) to infer spatiotemporal trends of environmental PCB concentrations from an extensive dataset (n=1219) of PCB concentrations measured between 1991 and 2010 in sediments of the Belgian Coastal Zone (BCZ) and the Western Scheldt estuary. A GAMM with time, geographical zone, periodicity and the organic carbon - water partition coefficient as covariates explained 49% of the variability in the log transformed PCB sediment concentrations. The time trends unraveled two to threefold PCB concentration decreases in the BCZ during the last 20 years. However, in the Western Scheldt estuary, time trends were spatially heterogeneous and not significantly decreasing. These results demonstrate that international efforts to cut down emissions of PCBs have been effective to reduce concentrations in open water ecosystems like the BCZ but had little effect in the urbanised and industrialised area of the Scheldt estuary.

Keywords: Additive modelling; Marine environment; Polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB); Sediment concentration; Time trend.

MeSH terms

Environmental Monitoring / methods*
Geologic Sediments / chemistry*
Models, Chemical*
Polychlorinated Biphenyls / analysis*
Water Pollutants, Chemical / analysis*
Water Pollution, Chemical / statistics & numerical data

Substances

Water Pollutants, Chemical
Polychlorinated Biphenyls