Objectives: To evaluate the usefulness of the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomogram for prediction of recurrence probability in our series of patients who have undergone radical cystectomy for bladder cancer.
Methods: 397 patients underwent radical cystectomy for bladder cancer between 1986 and 2005. 165 patients were excluded:21 due to exitus in the immediate postoperative period, 32 due to previous radiation therapy, 6 due to neoadjuvant chemotherapy, 5 due to inability to complete follow-up, 15 that did not undergo lymphadenectomy and 86 who were alive at the time of review with less than 5 years of follow-up. Patients were classified into recurrence risk groups: organ-confined tumors (pT0-2 pN0 ), extra-bladder involvement (pT3-4 pN0) and lymph node involvement (pN+). Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Five-year recurrence-free survival by risk groups in our series was compared with the one estimated using the MSKCC nomogram using a ROC curve.
Results: We analyzed 232 patients. Follow-up in patients who died of cancer was 25 ± 25 months. For alive patients and those who died of other causes, follow-up was 120 ± 39 months. Pathology studies revealed 42.7% organ-confined tumors , 33.2% with extra-bladder involvement and 24.1% with lymph node involvement. The five-year recurrence free survival analysis according to the Kaplan-Meier method stratified by risk groups was: pT0-2 76%, pT3-4 51%, pN+ 31%. The probability of recurrence free survival according to the MSKCC nomogram in the same risk groups was: 85% ± 5%, 62% ± 10% and 25% ± 13%, respectively. The area under the ROC curve was 0.795 (95% CI 0.739-0.852) CONCLUSION: In our series, the MSKCC nomogram constitutes a useful tool for predicting 5-year cancer free survival in patients who undergo radical cystectomy.