The stereodynamics of the Penning ionization of water molecules by collision with metastable neon atoms, occurring in the thermal energy range, is of great relevance for the understanding of fundamental aspects of the physical chemistry of water. This process has been studied by analyzing the energy spectrum of the emitted electrons previously obtained in our laboratory in a crossed beam experiment [B. G. Brunetti, P. Candori, D. Cappelletti, S. Falcinelli, F. Pirani, D. Stranges, and F. Vecchiocattivi, Chem. Phys. Lett. 539-540, 19 (2012)]. For the spectrum analysis, a novel semiclassical method is proposed, that assumes ionization events as mostly occurring in the vicinities of the collision turning points. The potential energy driving the system in the relevant configurations of the entrance and exit channels, used in the spectrum simulation, has been formulated by the use of a semiempirical method. The analysis puts clearly in evidence how different approaches of the metastable atom to the water molecule lead to ions in different electronic states. In particular, it provides the angular acceptance cones where the selectivity of the process leading to the specific formation of each one of the two energetically possible ionic product states of H2O(+) emerges. It is shown how the ground state ion is formed when neon metastable atoms approach water mainly perpendicularly to the molecular plane, while the first excited electronic state is formed when the approach occurs preferentially along the C2v axis, on the oxygen side. An explanation is proposed for the observed vibrational excitation of the product ions.