Aims and background: This analysis intended to estimate the incidence, mortality and prevalence time trends for the major cancer sites up to 2015 in the Friuli Venezia Giulia region, northeastern Italy, where a population-based cancer registry has been covering the whole area since 1995.
Methods: The MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach, was applied to estimate incidence, mortality and prevalence figures, in the period 1970-2015, using mortality data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics and relative survival data from Italian cancer registries.
Results: We estimated that the cancer sites with the highest incidence rates in the forthcoming years will be breast in women (with an age-standardized incidence rate of 130 per 100,000 in 2015), prostate in men (97 per 100,000) and colon-rectum in both sexes (85 and 42 per 100,000 in men and women, respectively). The incidence rates for lung cancer will continue to decrease only in men (down to 43 per 100,000 in 2015). Although the decline in the mortality rates of lung, breast and colorectal cancers is likely to persist, these tumors will remain the big killers in the near future. The number of people living in Friuli Venezia Giulia after a cancer diagnosis is expected to continue to rise in particular for breast cancer (with a crude prevalence of 3,000 per 100,000 women in 2015), prostate cancer (1,700 per 100,000 men) and colorectal cancer (1,100 and 800 per 100,000 in men and women, respectively).
Conclusion: These estimates confirmed the epidemiological patterns in time trends of major cancer sites recorded in Friuli Venezia Giulia. They highlighted in particular the increasing number of people living after a cancer diagnosis as a result of population aging, earlier diagnosis and better prognosis, which warrants adequate public health policies.