The aim of the present study was to identify the probability of winning each Volleyball set according to game location (home, away). Archival data was obtained from 275 sets in the 2005 Men's Senior World League and 65,949 actions were analysed. Set result (win, loss), game location (home, away), set number (first, second, third, fourth and fifth) and performance indicators (serve, reception, set, attack, dig and block) were the variables considered in this study. In a first moment, performance indicators were used in a logistic model of set result, by binary logistic regression analysis. After finding the adjusted logistic model, the log-odds of winning the set were analysed according to game location and set number. The results showed that winning a set is significantly related to performance indicators (Chisquare(18)=660.97, p<0.01). Analyses of log-odds of winning a set demonstrate that home teams always have more probability of winning the game than away teams, regardless of the set number. Home teams have more advantage at the beginning of the game (first set) and in the two last sets of the game (fourth and fifth sets), probably due to facilities familiarity and crowd effects. Different game actions explain these advantages and showed that to win the first set is more important to take risk, through a better performance in the attack and block, and to win the final set is important to manage the risk through a better performance on the reception. These results may suggest intra-game variation in home advantage and can be most useful to better prepare and direct the competition. Key pointsHome teams always have more probability of winning the game than away teams.Home teams have higher performance in reception, set and attack in the total of the sets.The advantage of home teams is more pronounced at the beginning of the game (first set) and in two last sets of the game (fourth and fifth sets) suggesting intra-game variation in home advantage.Analysis by sets showed that home teams have a better performance in the attack and block in the first set and in the reception in the third and fifth sets.
Keywords: Performance indicators; binary logistic regression; game analysis; team sport.