Disease-based modeling to predict fluid response in intensive care units

Methods Inf Med. 2013;52(6):494-502. doi: 10.3414/ME12-01-0093. Epub 2013 Aug 28.

Abstract

Objective: To compare general and disease-based modeling for fluid resuscitation and vasopressor use in intensive care units.

Methods: Retrospective cohort study involving 2944 adult medical and surgical intensive care unit (ICU) patients receiving fluid resuscitation. Within this cohort there were two disease-based groups, 802 patients with a diagnosis of pneumonia, and 143 patients with a diagnosis of pancreatitis. Fluid resuscitation either progressing to subsequent vasopressor administration or not was used as the primary outcome variable to compare general and disease-based modeling.

Results: Patients with pancreatitis, pneumonia and the general group all shared three common predictive features as core variables, arterial base excess, lactic acid and platelets. Patients with pneumonia also had non-invasive systolic blood pressure and white blood cells added to the core model, and pancreatitis patients additionally had temperature. Disease-based models had significantly higher values of AUC (p < 0.05) than the general group (0.82 ± 0.02 for pneumonia and 0.83 ± 0.03 for pancreatitis vs. 0.79 ± 0.02 for general patients).

Conclusions: Disease-based predictive modeling reveals a different set of predictive variables compared to general modeling and improved performance. Our findings add support to the growing body of evidence advantaging disease specific predictive modeling.

Keywords: Disease-based modeling; decision modeling; fluid resuscitation; intensive care units.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Acid-Base Imbalance / physiopathology
  • Acid-Base Imbalance / therapy
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Blood Pressure / physiology
  • Cohort Studies
  • Computer Simulation*
  • Decision Support Systems, Clinical*
  • Decision Support Techniques*
  • Female
  • Fluid Therapy / methods*
  • Hospital Mortality
  • Humans
  • Intensive Care Units*
  • Lactic Acid / blood
  • Leukocyte Count
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Monitoring, Physiologic
  • Pancreatitis / mortality
  • Pancreatitis / physiopathology
  • Pancreatitis / therapy*
  • Platelet Count
  • Pneumonia / mortality
  • Pneumonia / physiopathology
  • Pneumonia / therapy*
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Vasoconstrictor Agents / therapeutic use

Substances

  • Vasoconstrictor Agents
  • Lactic Acid