Adjusting for reporting delay in cancer incidence when combining different sets of cancer registries

Abstract

Cancer registries collect cancer incidence data that can be used to calculate incidence rates in a population and track changes over time. For incidence rates to be accurate, it is critical that diagnosed cases be reported in a timely manner. Registries typically allow a fixed amount of time (e.g. two years) for diagnosed cases to be reported before releasing the initial case counts for a particular diagnosis year. Inevitably, however, additional cases are reported after the initial counts are released; these extra cases are included in subsequent releases that become more complete over time, while incidence rates based on earlier releases will underestimate the true rates. Statistical methods have been developed to estimate the distribution of reporting delay (the amount of time until a diagnosed case is reported) and to correct incidence rates for underestimation due to reporting delay. Since the observed reporting delays must be less than the length of time the registry has been collecting data, most methods estimate a truncated delay distribution. These methods can be applied to a group of registries that began collecting data in the same diagnosis year. In this paper, we extend the methods to two groups of registries that began collecting data in two different diagnosis years (so that the delay distributions are truncated at different times). We apply the proposed method to data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program, a consortium of U.S. cancer registries that includes nine registries with data collection beginning in 1981 and four registries with data collection beginning in 1992. We use the method to obtain delay-adjusted incidence rates for melanoma, liver cancer, and Hodgkin lymphoma.

Keywords: Adjusted cancer incidence; Delay adjustment factor; Delay models; Reporting delay; SEER.