Amine-based diazeniumdiolates (NONOates) have garnered widespread use as nitric oxide (NO) donors, and their potential for nitroxyl (HNO) release has more recently been realized. While NO release rates can vary significantly with the type of amine, half-lives of seconds to days under physiological conditions, there is as yet no way to determine a priori the NO or HNO production rates of a given species, and no discernible trends have manifested other than that secondary amines produce only NO (i.e., no HNO). As a step to understanding these complex systems, here we describe a procedure for modeling amine-based NONOates in water solvent that provides an excellent correlation (R(2) = 0.94) between experimentally measured dissociation rates of seven secondary amine species and their computed NO release activation energies. The significant difference in behavior of NONOates in the gas and solvent phases is also rigorously demonstrated via explicit additions of quantum mechanical water molecules. The presented results suggest that the as-yet unsynthesized simplest amine-based NONOate, the diazeniumdiolated ammonia anion [H2N-N(O)═NO(-)], could serve as an unperturbed HNO donor. These results provide a step forward toward the accurate modeling of general NO and/or HNO donors as well as for the identification of tailored prodrug candidates.