A scan statistic for binary outcome based on hypergeometric probability model, with an application to detecting spatial clusters of Japanese encephalitis

PLoS One. 2013 Jun 13;8(6):e65419. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0065419. Print 2013.

Abstract

As a useful tool for geographical cluster detection of events, the spatial scan statistic is widely applied in many fields and plays an increasingly important role. The classic version of the spatial scan statistic for the binary outcome is developed by Kulldorff, based on the Bernoulli or the Poisson probability model. In this paper, we apply the Hypergeometric probability model to construct the likelihood function under the null hypothesis. Compared with existing methods, the likelihood function under the null hypothesis is an alternative and indirect method to identify the potential cluster, and the test statistic is the extreme value of the likelihood function. Similar with Kulldorff's methods, we adopt Monte Carlo test for the test of significance. Both methods are applied for detecting spatial clusters of Japanese encephalitis in Sichuan province, China, in 2009, and the detected clusters are identical. Through a simulation to independent benchmark data, it is indicated that the test statistic based on the Hypergeometric model outweighs Kulldorff's statistics for clusters of high population density or large size; otherwise Kulldorff's statistics are superior.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Bayes Theorem
  • China / epidemiology
  • Computer Simulation
  • Encephalitis, Japanese / epidemiology*
  • Humans
  • Likelihood Functions
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Probability
  • Risk
  • Topography, Medical

Grants and funding

This work was supported by Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 30571618 and No. 61103042), Grants of the Ministry of Health, China (No. 200802133), Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (No. 20100181120029), State Key Laboratory of Software Engineering of China (No. SKLSE2012-09-32), and China Scholarship Council (http://en.csc.edu.cn/). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.