Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a disease, which often recurs. The recurrence risk is highest in patients with unprovoked proximal deep-vein thrombosis (VT) or pulmonary embolism. Men have a higher risk than women. The risk is low in patients with VTE related to a temporary risk factor such as surgery or estrogen use. Other risk factors include overweight, post-thrombotic syndrome, history of VTE, residual VT or a vena cava filter. Both factor V Leiden and the prothrombin mutation confer a negligible increase in recurrence risk. High clotting factor levels, deficiency of a natural coagulation inhibitor, or hyperhomocysteinaemia are also associated with an increased risk. Reasons why routine laboratory thrombophilia screening however is no longer warranted are addressed in this article. Prediction rules combining clinical characteristics and coagulation assays have recently been developed. One such model, the Vienna Prediction Model, allows predicting recurrent VTE on the basis of VTE location, sex and D-dimer. This article describes strategies to distinguish between patients with high risk of recurrent VTE from those with a lower risk, who might not benefit from long-term antithrombotic therapy.