An open-access modeled passenger flow matrix for the global air network in 2010

PLoS One. 2013 May 15;8(5):e64317. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0064317. Print 2013.

Abstract

The expanding global air network provides rapid and wide-reaching connections accelerating both domestic and international travel. To understand human movement patterns on the network and their socioeconomic, environmental and epidemiological implications, information on passenger flow is required. However, comprehensive data on global passenger flow remain difficult and expensive to obtain, prompting researchers to rely on scheduled flight seat capacity data or simple models of flow. This study describes the construction of an open-access modeled passenger flow matrix for all airports with a host city-population of more than 100,000 and within two transfers of air travel from various publicly available air travel datasets. Data on network characteristics, city population, and local area GDP amongst others are utilized as covariates in a spatial interaction framework to predict the air transportation flows between airports. Training datasets based on information from various transportation organizations in the United States, Canada and the European Union were assembled. A log-linear model controlling the random effects on origin, destination and the airport hierarchy was then built to predict passenger flows on the network, and compared to the results produced using previously published models. Validation analyses showed that the model presented here produced improved predictive power and accuracy compared to previously published models, yielding the highest successful prediction rate at the global scale. Based on this model, passenger flows between 1,491 airports on 644,406 unique routes were estimated in the prediction dataset. The airport node characteristics and estimated passenger flows are freely available as part of the Vector-Borne Disease Airline Importation Risk (VBD-Air) project at: www.vbd-air.com/data.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Aviation*
  • Canada
  • Europe
  • Travel*
  • United States

Grants and funding

AJT and ZH acknowledge support from the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences, through contract #ACRP02-20. AJT also acknowledges funding support from the RAPIDD program of the Science & Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security, and the Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, and is also supported by grants from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (#49446 and#1032350). AJG was partially supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No.0801544 in the Quantitative Spatial Ecology, Evolution, and Environment Program at the University of Florida. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.