Relationships among energy price shocks, stock market, and the macroeconomy: evidence from China

ScientificWorldJournal. 2013 Apr 9:2013:171868. doi: 10.1155/2013/171868. Print 2013.

Abstract

This paper investigates the interactive relationships among China energy price shocks, stock market, and the macroeconomy using multivariate vector autoregression. The results indicate that there is a long cointegration among them. A 1% rise in the energy price index can depress the stock market index by 0.54% and the industrial value-adding growth by 0.037%. Energy price shocks also cause inflation and have a 5-month lag effect on stock market, which may result in the stock market "underreacting." The energy price can explain stock market fluctuations better than the interest rate over a longer time period. Consequently, investors should pay greater attention to the long-term effect of energy on the stock market.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Computer Simulation
  • Energy-Generating Resources / economics*
  • Investments / economics*
  • Investments / statistics & numerical data*
  • Models, Economic*
  • Ownership / economics*
  • Ownership / statistics & numerical data*