Policy implications of trends in Turkey's meat sector with respect to 2023 vision

Abstract

Turkey has become one of the leading emerging economies in the world being second after China as the highest economically growing country with 8.9% economic growth rate in 2010. Forecasting impacts of this development in coming 10 years might have very important policy implications for the meat sector in the framework of 2013 vision of Turkey. In this study, annual time series data which contain several key variables of meat sector in last 26 years (1987-2012) are used to forecast the variables of the coming twelve years (2013-2024) to drive policy implications by considering the impacts of high economic growths, crises and major policy changes. Forecasted future values of the variables for 2023 in the sector are assessed and compared with recent national and international values to drive policy implications. The results show that the economic growth results in the increase in per capita income and thus increased demand for meat seemed to foster the meat sector. Therefore, these macroeconomic indicators need to be better in addition to improvements at micro level for establishing competitive meat sector and thus reaching aimed consumption level of meat.

Keywords: 2023 vision; Economic policy; Forecasting; Meat industry; Time series; Turkey.