Plasma copeptin, a possible prognostic marker in cirrhosis

Abstract

Background & aim: Copeptin, secreted stoichiometrically with vasopressin, demonstrated its prognostic role in various diseases other than cirrhosis.

Methods: We investigated the association between severity of cirrhosis and plasma concentrations of copeptin, and the prognostic value of copeptin in 95 non-septic cirrhotic patients (34 Child-Pugh A, 29 CP-B, 32 CP-C), 30 septic patients with a Child-Pugh >8 ('group D'), and 16 healthy volunteers. Patients were followed for at least 12 months to assess the composite endpoint death/liver transplantation.

Results: Median copeptin concentrations (interquartile range) increased through healthy volunteers group [5.95 (3.76-9.43) pmol/L] and 'group D' patients [18.81 (8.96-36.66) pmol/L; P < 0.001)]. During a median follow-up of 11.0 ± 6.1 months, 28 non-transplanted patients died and eight were transplanted. In receiver operated characteristic curves analysis, the area under the curve values were as follows: Child-Pugh score 0.80 (95% CI: 0.71-0.86), model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score 0.80 (0.70-0.86), C-reactive protein (CRP) 0.71 (0.60-0.80) and copeptin 0.70 (0.57-0.79). By stratifying the values of these variables into tertiles, the risk of death/liver transplantation for patients belonging to the highest tertile of copeptin (>13 pmol/L) was high (Log-rank test: P = 0.0002) and 2.3-fold higher than for patients with lower concentrations after adjusting for MELD score (>21) and CRP (>24 mg/L) in a Cox model. Other potential predictors (age, total cholesterol, natraemia and serum free cortisol) did not reach a significant level.

Conclusion: In cirrhotic patients, copeptin concentrations increased along with the severity of liver disease. In our cohort, the 1-year mortality or liver transplantation was predicted by high MELD score and high concentrations of CRP and copeptin.