Abstract
Climate change affects the phenology of many species. As temperature and precipitation are thought to control autumn color change in temperate deciduous trees, it is possible that climate change might also affect the phenology of autumn colors. Using long-term data for eight tree species in a New England hardwood forest, we show that the timing and cumulative amount of autumn color are correlated with variation in temperature and precipitation at specific times of the year. A phenological model driven by accumulated cold degree-days and photoperiod reproduces most of the interspecific and interannual variability in the timing of autumn colors. We use this process-oriented model to predict changes in the phenology of autumn colors to 2099, showing that, while responses vary among species, climate change under standard IPCC projections will lead to an overall increase in the amount of autumn colors for most species.
Publication types
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Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
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Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
MeSH terms
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Climate Change*
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Models, Biological*
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New England
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Pigmentation / physiology*
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Seasons*
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Time Factors
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Trees / physiology*
Grants and funding
Research at Harvard Forest is partially supported by the National Foundation′s (NSF) LTER program (award number DEB-0080592). ADR acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation through the Macrosystems Biology program (award EF-1065029), and the Northeastern States Research Cooperative, in addition to the United States Geological Survey Status (USGS) and Trends Program, the United States National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring Program, and the United States of America National Phenology Network, through grant number G10AP00129 from the USGS. The contents of this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of either USGS or NSF. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.