Previous research examining radon exposure from granite countertops relied on using a limited number of exposure scenarios. We expanded upon this analysis and determined the probability that installing a granite countertop in a residential home would lead to a meaningful radon exposure by performing a Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a distribution of potential indoor radon concentrations attributable to granite. The Monte Carlo analysis included estimates of the probability that a particular type of granite would be purchased, the radon flux associated with that type, the size of the countertop purchased, the volume of the home where it would be installed and the air exchange rate of that home. One million countertop purchases were simulated and 99.99% of the resulting radon concentrations were lower than the average outdoor radon concentrations in the US (14.8 Bq m(-3); 0.4 pCi l(-1)). The median predicted indoor concentration from granite countertops was 0.06 Bq m(-3) (1.59 × 10(-3) pCi l(-1)), which is over 2000 times lower than the US Environmental Protection Agency's action level for indoor radon (148 Bq m(-3); 4 pCi l(-1)). The results show that there is a low probability of a granite countertop causing elevated levels of radon in a home.