Prognostic models in the clinical arena

Aging Clin Exp Res. 2012 Aug;24(4):300-4. doi: 10.1007/BF03325262.

Abstract

Making a prognosis is to predict the course of a disease and estimate the probability (or risk) of the appearance of a given outcome in relationship to clinical or non-clinical characteristics. Prognostic assessment is usually modelled by multivariable mathematic equations (prognostic models). In this article we describe what a prognostic model is, how to build a good one, why and how it is important to evaluate its generalizability and accuracy by means of discrimination, calibration and reclassification.

Publication types

  • Review

MeSH terms

  • Calibration
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Probability*
  • Prognosis*
  • Risk