Factors controlling variability in nearshore fecal pollution: the effects of mortality

Abstract

A suite of physical-biological models was used to explore the importance of mortality and fluid dynamics in controlling concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) at Huntington Beach, CA. An advection-diffusion (AD) model provided a baseline to assess improvements in model skill with the inclusion of mortality. Six forms of mortality were modeled. All mortality models performed better than the AD model, especially at offshore sampling stations, where model skill increased from <0.18 to >0.50 (Escherichia coli) or <-0.14 to >0.30 (Enterococcus). Models including cross-shore variable mortality rates reproduced FIB decay accurately (p<0.05) at more stations than models without. This finding is consistent with analyses that revealed cross-shore variability in Enterococcus species composition and solar dose response. No best model was identified for Enterococcus, as all models including cross-shore variable mortality performed similarly. The best model for E. coli included solar-dependent and cross-shore variable mortality.