Accommodating climate change contingencies in conservation strategy

Abstract

Species ranges are seldom at equilibrium with climate, because several interacting factors determine distribution, including demographic processes, dispersal, land use, disturbance (e.g., fire), and biotic interactions. Conservation strategies in a changing climate therefore cannot be based only on predicted climate-driven range shifts. Here, we explore conservation and management options in a framework for prioritizing landscapes based on two 'axes of concern': landscape conservation capacity attributes (percentage of protected area, connectivity, and condition of the matrix) and vulnerability to climate change (climate change velocity and topographic variation). Nine other conservation actions are also presented, from understanding and predicting to planning and managing for climate change. We emphasize the need for adaptation and resilience in populations, ecosystems, and the conservation environment itself.