Demographic amplification of climate change experienced by the contiguous United States population during the 20(th) century

PLoS One. 2012;7(10):e45683. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0045683. Epub 2012 Oct 24.

Abstract

Better understanding of the changing relationship between human populations and climate is a global research priority. The 20(th) century in the contiguous United States offers a particularly well-documented example of human demographic expansion during a period of radical socioeconomic and environmental change. One would expect that as human society has been transformed by technology, we would become increasingly decoupled from climate and more dependent on social infrastructure. Here we use spatially-explicit models to evaluate climatic, socio-economic and biophysical correlates of demographic change in the contiguous United States between 1900 and 2000. Climate-correlated variation in population growth has caused the U.S. population to shift its realized climate niche from cool, seasonal climates to warm, aseasonal climates. As a result, the average annual temperature experienced by U.S. citizens between 1920 and 2000 has increased by more than 1.5°C and the temperature seasonality has decreased by 1.1°C during a century when climate change accounted for only a 0.24°C increase in average annual temperature and a 0.15°C decrease in temperature seasonality. Thus, despite advancing technology, climate-correlated demographics continue to be a major feature of contemporary U.S. society. Unfortunately, these demographic patterns are contributing to a substantial warming of the climate niche during a period of rapid environmental warming, making an already bad situation worse.

Publication types

  • Historical Article
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Climate Change*
  • Demography*
  • History, 20th Century
  • Humans
  • Population Growth*
  • United States

Grants and funding

The Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada funded this study through a PhD scholarship. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.