Stochastic fluctuations of the transmission rate in the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model

Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2012 Jul;86(1 Pt 1):011919. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.86.011919. Epub 2012 Jul 23.

Abstract

We analyze the dynamics of the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model when the transmission rate displays Gaussian white noise fluctuations around its mean value. We obtain analytic expressions for the final size distribution of infectives and the mean infected number of individuals. The model displays a variety of noise-induced transitions as a function of the basic reproductive rate and the noise intensity. We derive a threshold criterion for epidemic invasion in the presence of external noise and determine the mean epidemic duration and the mean epidemic extinction time.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Computer Simulation
  • Disease Susceptibility / epidemiology*
  • Disease Transmission, Infectious / statistics & numerical data*
  • Epidemics / statistics & numerical data*
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Risk Assessment
  • Stochastic Processes*