Detecting causality in complex ecosystems

Science. 2012 Oct 26;338(6106):496-500. doi: 10.1126/science.1227079. Epub 2012 Sep 20.

Abstract

Identifying causal networks is important for effective policy and management recommendations on climate, epidemiology, financial regulation, and much else. We introduce a method, based on nonlinear state space reconstruction, that can distinguish causality from correlation. It extends to nonseparable weakly connected dynamic systems (cases not covered by the current Granger causality paradigm). The approach is illustrated both by simple models (where, in contrast to the real world, we know the underlying equations/relations and so can check the validity of our method) and by application to real ecological systems, including the controversial sardine-anchovy-temperature problem.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Causality*
  • Ciliophora
  • Ecosystem*
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Nonlinear Dynamics
  • Paramecium