A vaccination model for a multi-city system

Bull Math Biol. 2012 Oct;74(10):2474-87. doi: 10.1007/s11538-012-9762-9. Epub 2012 Aug 18.

Abstract

A modelling approach is used for studying the effects of population vaccination on the epidemic dynamics of a set of n cities interconnected by a complex transportation network. The model is based on a sophisticated mover-stayer formulation of inter-city population migration, upon which is included the classical SIS dynamics of disease transmission which operates within each city. Our analysis studies the stability properties of the Disease-Free Equilibrium (DFE) of the full n-city system in terms of the reproductive number R(0). Should vaccination reduce R(0) below unity, the disease will be eradicated in all n-cities. We determine the precise conditions for which this occurs, and show that disease eradication by vaccination depend on the transportation structure of the migration network in a very direct manner. Several concrete examples are presented and discussed, and some counter-intuitive results found.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Basic Reproduction Number*
  • Cities
  • Communicable Disease Control / methods*
  • Communicable Diseases / immunology*
  • Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control*
  • Humans
  • Models, Immunological*
  • Travel
  • Vaccination / methods*