Purpose: Conditional survival (CS) offers more relevant prognostic information for patients once they have survived for some time. The objective of this study was to determine the CS for advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients treated with vascular endothelial growth factor-targeted therapy.
Methods: A total of 345 patients treated between 2006 and 2011 fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were reviewed for analyses. The 1-year conditional and actual survival rates were calculated for survivors from treatment to month 24. Subgroup-specific CS rates were generated after adjustment of the covariate influence. The Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the prognostic factors at baseline and 1-year landmark.
Results: The probabilities of surviving an additional year given survival to 6, 12, 18, and 24 months were 72.2, 76.3, 78.2, and 78.6 %, respectively. Remarkable increase in CS was observed in patients initially classified as intermediate or poor risk according to Heng risk groups. For patients survived 24 months after treatment, the adjusted CS for the following year was over 80 % regardless of initial risk attribution. Compared to baseline analysis, Heng risk groups were less predictive of survivorship after surviving 1 year. The addition of disease control status to multifactorial model significantly improved survival estimation for 1-year survivors (p < 0.01).
Conclusions: CS provides useful information regarding life expectancy for survivors of advanced RCC treated with targeted therapy. Furthermore, disease control status within a specific period of time is critical to the prediction of subsequent survival.