Random dynamical models from time series

Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2012 Mar;85(3 Pt 2):036216. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.85.036216. Epub 2012 Mar 26.

Abstract

In this work we formulate a consistent Bayesian approach to modeling stochastic (random) dynamical systems by time series and implement it by means of artificial neural networks. The feasibility of this approach for both creating models adequately reproducing the observed stationary regime of system evolution, and predicting changes in qualitative behavior of a weakly nonautonomous stochastic system, is demonstrated on model examples. In particular, a successful prognosis of stochastic system behavior as compared to the observed one is illustrated on model examples, including discrete maps disturbed by non-Gaussian and nonuniform noise and a flow system with Langevin force.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't