Identification of Chinese plague foci from long-term epidemiological data

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2012 May 22;109(21):8196-201. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1110585109. Epub 2012 May 8.

Abstract

Carrying out statistical analysis over an extensive dataset of human plague reports in Chinese villages from 1772 to 1964, we identified plague endemic territories in China (i.e., plague foci). Analyses rely on (i) a clustering method that groups time series based on their time-frequency resemblances and (ii) an ecological niche model that helps identify plague suitable territories characterized by value ranges for a set of predefined environmental variables. Results from both statistical tools indicate the existence of two disconnected plague territories corresponding to Northern and Southern China. Altogether, at least four well defined independent foci are identified. Their contours compare favorably with field observations. Potential and limitations of inferring plague foci and dynamics using epidemiological data is discussed.

Publication types

  • Historical Article
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • China / epidemiology
  • Cluster Analysis
  • Disease Reservoirs / statistics & numerical data*
  • Ecosystem
  • Epidemics / history*
  • History, 18th Century
  • History, 19th Century
  • History, 20th Century
  • Humans
  • Plague / epidemiology*
  • Plague / history*
  • Wavelet Analysis
  • Yersinia pestis / isolation & purification*