Background: The U.S. economy is beginning to recover from the most significant contraction since the Great Depression. Several sectors, including dentistry, have experienced reduced consumer demand and reduced earnings. Focusing on general practitioners, the authors analyzed trends in various factors that drive dentists' income to identify which of these factors are most important in explaining the recent decline. They then offer their views on future trends in dentists' net income levels.
Methods: The authors used data from a nationally representative survey of dentists maintained by the American Dental Association (ADA) and data from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality's Medical Expenditure Panel Survey to analyze trends in real gross billings per visit, rates of collection of gross billings, number of visits to a dentist, percentage of the population who visited a dentist, population to dentist ratio and average real practice expenses.
Results: The authors found that the recent decrease in dentists' net income levels was driven primarily by a decrease in utilization of dental care on the part of the population. Moreover, this decline in dental care use, although most pronounced during the economic downturn, appeared to have started before the downturn began. This suggests that more factors than solely the economic recession are affecting changes in dental care utilization patterns.
Conclusions: The authors' findings suggest that average real net income for dentists may not necessarily recover to prerecession levels once economic conditions in the United States improve. This finding, combined with the potential implications of health care reform for dentistry, causes the authors to believe the future prospects related to dentists' net income levels remain uncertain.