Conductive polymer composite sensors have shown great potential in identifying gaseous analytes. To more thoroughly understand the physical and chemical mechanisms of this type of sensor, a mathematical model was developed by combining two sub-models: a conductivity model and a thermodynamic model, which gives a relationship between the vapor concentration of analyte(s) and the change of the sensor signals. In this work, 64 chemiresistors representing eight different carbon concentrations (8-60 vol% carbon) were constructed by depositing thin films of a carbon-black/polyisobutylene composite onto concentric spiral platinum electrodes on a silicon chip. The responses of the sensors were measured in dry air and at various vapor pressures of toluene and trichloroethylene. Three parameters in the conductivity model were determined by fitting the experimental data. It was shown that by applying this model, the sensor responses can be adequately predicted for given vapor pressures; furthermore the analyte vapor concentrations can be estimated based on the sensor responses. This model will guide the improvement of the design and fabrication of conductive polymer composite sensors for detecting and identifying mixtures of organic vapors.