Objective: To evaluate the preoperative factors predictive of postoperative early recurrence in patients with resected pancreatic cancer focusing on the serum CA19-9 value.
Methods: One hundred fifty-four patients undergoing surgical resection for pancreatic cancer were enrolled in this study. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine the predictors of early recurrence which was defined as relapse within 6 months after surgery.
Results: On ROC curve analysis, the cutoff value of CA19-9 was determined to be 100 U/ml. Of 73 patients with CA19-9 value ≥ 100 U/ml, 39 (53 %) had early recurrence. In contrast, only 9 of 81 patients (11 %) with CA19-9 value < 100 U/ml developed a recurrence at an early period (p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that CA19-9 value ≥ 100 U/ml (odds ratio, 11.2) were significant predictors of early recurrence. The overall 3- and 5-year survival rates and median survival times were 47.3 %, 40.1 %, and 31 months in patients with CA19-9 value < 100 U/ml and 21.2 %, 9.4 %, and 16 months in patients with CA19-9 value ≥ 100 U/ml (p < 0.001).
Conclusions: A preoperative CA19-9 value ≥ 100 U/ml was a significant predictor of early recurrence and a poor prognosis after resection for pancreatic adenocarcinoma.