Public health, climate, and economic impacts of desulfurizing jet fuel

Environ Sci Technol. 2012 Apr 17;46(8):4275-82. doi: 10.1021/es203325a. Epub 2012 Mar 28.

Abstract

In jurisdictions including the US and the EU ground transportation and marine fuels have recently been required to contain lower concentrations of sulfur, which has resulted in reduced atmospheric SO(x) emissions. In contrast, the maximum sulfur content of aviation fuel has remained unchanged at 3000 ppm (although sulfur levels average 600 ppm in practice). We assess the costs and benefits of a potential ultra-low sulfur (15 ppm) jet fuel standard ("ULSJ"). We estimate that global implementation of ULSJ will cost US$1-4bn per year and prevent 900-4000 air quality-related premature mortalities per year. Radiative forcing associated with reduction in atmospheric sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium loading is estimated at +3.4 mW/m(2) (equivalent to about 1/10th of the warming due to CO(2) emissions from aviation) and ULSJ increases life cycle CO(2) emissions by approximately 2%. The public health benefits are dominated by the reduction in cruise SO(x) emissions, so a key uncertainty is the atmospheric modeling of vertical transport of pollution from cruise altitudes to the ground. Comparisons of modeled and measured vertical profiles of CO, PAN, O(3), and (7)Be indicate that this uncertainty is low relative to uncertainties regarding the value of statistical life and the toxicity of fine particulate matter.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Air Pollutants / economics
  • Air Pollutants / standards*
  • Air Pollutants / toxicity
  • Air Pollution / economics
  • Air Pollution / legislation & jurisprudence
  • Air Pollution / prevention & control*
  • Climate Change
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis
  • Humans
  • Hydrocarbons / standards*
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Particulate Matter / economics
  • Particulate Matter / standards
  • Particulate Matter / toxicity
  • Sulfur / economics
  • Sulfur / standards*
  • Sulfur Oxides / economics
  • Sulfur Oxides / standards*
  • Uncertainty

Substances

  • Air Pollutants
  • Hydrocarbons
  • Particulate Matter
  • Sulfur Oxides
  • Sulfur
  • JP5 jet fuel