Introduction: Bayesian forecasting has been shown to improve the accuracy of pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models by adding measured values to a population model. It could be done in real time for neuromuscular blockers (NMB) using measured values of effect. This study was designed to assess feasibility and benefit of Bayesian forecasting during a rocuronium target-controlled infusion (TCI).
Methods: After internal review board (IRB) approval and informed consent, 21 women scheduled for breast plastic surgery were included. Anesthesia was maintained with propofol, alfentanil, and controlled ventilation through a laryngeal mask. Rocuronium was delivered in TCI with Stanpump software and the Plaud population model. The target effect was 50% blockade until insertion of breast prosthesis; thereafter it was set to 0%. Response to train of four (TOF) at adductor pollicis was recorded using a force transducer. In ten patients, drug delivery was based on the population model. In the others, repeated measures values were entered in the software, and the PK model was adjusted to minimize the error in predicted effect. Model precision was compared between groups using mean prediction error and mean absolute prediction error.
Results: At target 50%, model accuracy was not improved with Bayesian adjustments; conversely, post-infusion errors were significantly decreased. The first two measures had the most influence on the model changes.
Discussion: Below clinical utility, such adjustments may be used to explore cofactors influencing interindividual and intraindividual variability in NMB dose-response relationship. Similar tools may also be developed for drugs in which a quantitative effect is available, such as electroencephalography (EEG) for hypnotics.
Implication: Real-time Bayesian forecasting combining measured values of effect with a population model is suitable to guide NMB-agent delivery using Stanpump software.