Background: In sub-Saharan Africa, high mortality rates have been reported among patients with advanced HIV infection initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART). We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of expanding access to cotrimoxazole (CTX) for persons with HIV in averting mortality during the first 6 months of ART. We also evaluated possible cost savings related to prevention of specific opportunistic infections (OIs).
Methods: We developed a decision-analytic model to estimate the incremental cost, deaths averted, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The model compared 2 scenarios for providing CTX and evaluated potential benefits of increased CTX coverage in reducing deaths and cases of OI. The base case scenario represents an estimated current level of CTX coverage among adults initiating ART in low-income countries (65%). The comparator is 97% coverage (excluding only those with contraindications to CTX). We conducted sensitivity analyses on all parameters in the model.
Results: Full coverage reduced deaths from 94 to 72 per 1000 patients, averting 22 deaths during the first 6 months of ART compared with the base case. The incremental cost of moving from base case to full coverage was estimated at $3.29 per person on ART and $146.91 per death averted over 6 months. Additional benefits from averted OI cases would likely be realized as well as savings from averted OI treatment costs.
Conclusions: Our findings suggest that expanding CTX coverage is a cost-effective approach to reducing mortality among patients who present with advanced HIV and initiate ART. The expansion of coverage may also yield benefits for OIs.