In several studies high correlations were found when the prevalence of caries in the past was correlated with future caries risk in children and adolescents. The practical value of this method for the identification of children with high risk for caries can be assessed by measurement of the ability of the method to recognize subjects who will develop caries (sensitivity) and to exclude those who will not (specificity). Taking into consideration worldwide studies from recent years the problems of this method were pointed out and discussed.