Health impact assessment and monetary valuation of IQ loss in pre-school children due to lead exposure through locally produced food

Abstract

A case study has been performed which involved the full chain assessment from policy drivers to health effect quantification of lead exposure through locally produced food on loss of IQ in pre-school children at the population level across the EU-27, including monetary valuation of the estimated health impact. Main policy scenarios cover the period from 2000 to 2020 and include the most important Community policy developments expected to affect the environmental release of lead (Pb) and corresponding human exposure patterns. Three distinct scenarios were explored: the emission situation based on 2000 data, a business-as-usual scenario (BAU) up to 2010 and 2020 and a scenario incorporating the most likely technological change expected (Most Feasible Technical Reductions, MFTR) in response to current and future legislation. Consecutive model calculations (MSCE-HM, WATSON, XtraFOOD, IEUBK) were performed by different partners on the project as part of the full chain approach to derive estimates of blood lead (B-Pb) levels in children as a consequence of the consumption of local produce. The estimated B-Pb levels were translated into an average loss of IQ points/child using an empirical relationship based on a meta-analysis performed by Schwartz (1994). The calculated losses in IQ points were subsequently further translated into the average cost/child using a cost estimate of €10.000 per loss of IQ point based on data from a literature review. The estimated average reduction of cost/child (%) for all countries considered in 2010 under BAU and MFTR are 12.16 and 18.08% as compared to base line conditions, respectively. In 2020 the percentages amount to 20.19 and 23.39%. The case study provides an example of the full-chain impact pathway approach taking into account all foreseeable pathways both for assessing the environmental fate and the associated human exposure and the mode of toxic action to arrive at quantitative estimates of health impacts at the individual and the population risk levels alike at EU scale. As the estimated B-Pb levels fall below the range of observed biomonitoring data collected for pre-school children in 6 different EU countries, results presented in this paper are only a first approximation of the costs entailed in the health effects of exposure to lead and the potential benefits that may arise from MFTR measures inscribed in Commission policies.