Pandemic influenza H1N1: reconciling serosurvey data with estimates of the reproduction number

Epidemiology. 2012 Jan;23(1):86-94. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e31823a44a5.

Abstract

Background: During the 2009 pandemic of influenza A (H1N1), many studies reported estimates of the reproduction number from outbreak data. Since then, seroprevalence studies have been conducted in a number of countries to assess the proportion of the population that was infected in the first wave of the pandemic.

Methods: Here, we collate the reproduction number estimates, and use mathematical models to reconcile these with serosurvey data.

Results: Most estimates of the reproduction number from outbreaks are in the range of 1.0-2.0, whereas mean estimates calculated from seroprevalence data range from 1.14 to 1.36. Age-specific analysis of these data suggests that the reproduction number for children was approximately 1.6, whereas the reproduction numbers for adults >25 years of age was less than 1.0.

Conclusion: The difference between age-groups may help to explain high estimates of the reproduction number from outbreaks involving a large proportion of child cases.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype*
  • Influenza, Human / epidemiology*
  • Influenza, Human / transmission
  • Influenza, Human / virology
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Statistical
  • Pandemics / statistics & numerical data*
  • Seroepidemiologic Studies*
  • Young Adult