Purpose: The interim analysis of the National Cancer Institute of Canada Clinical Trials Group MA.17 trial showed that letrozole was significantly better than placebo in disease-free survival (DFS) for postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer following about 5 years of tamoxifen therapy. When patients were unblinded, those on placebo were offered letrozole. Longer-term efficacy of letrozole, especially survival, was of particular interest because the median follow-up of the first interim analysis was only 2.5 years. Efficacy was difficult to assess because more than 60% of placebo patients crossed over to letrozole after being unblinded.
Patients and methods: Two statistical approaches were used to adjust for the potential effects of treatment crossover: one was based on the inverse probability of censoring weighted (IPCW) Cox model and the other on a Cox model with time-dependent covariates.
Results: With a median follow-up of 64 months, the hazard ratios (HRs) of letrozole and placebo from the IPCW analyses were HR of 0.52 (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.61; P < .001) for DFS, HR of 0.51 (95% CI, 0.42 to 0.61; P < .001) for distant disease-free survival (DDFS), and HR of 0.61 (95% CI, 0.52 to 0.71; P < .001) for overall survival (OS). The results from the analyses based on the Cox model with time-dependent covariates were similar for letrozole and placebo: HR of 0.58 (95% CI, 0.47 to 0.72; P < .001) for DFS, HR of 0.68 (95% CI, 0.52 to 0.88; P = .004) for DDFS, and HR of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.60 to 0.96; P = .02) for OS.
Conclusion: Exploratory analyses based on longer follow-up and adjusting for treatment crossover suggest that extended adjuvant letrozole was superior to placebo in DFS, DDFS, and OS.